关键词: 多项式混沌展开法(PCE), 空间实验室, 轨道预报

Abstract:  The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method is applied to the orbit prediction error analysis of the space laboratory. By constructing the PCE model, the uncertainty propagation process in the orbit prediction is approximated, and the error of the position and velocity of the spacecraft is analyzed. The effects of the order of the PCE models, the time of prediction and the number of the sample points on the construction of the PCE model are discussed. Considering the accuracy and computational efficiency, the appropriate PCE model for the space laboratory orbit prediction error analysis is presented. The PCE method and the traditional methods are compared. The results show that the PCE method has better nonlinear approximation ability and high computational efficiency, which validates the effectiveness of the PCE method applied to the orbit prediction of the space laboratory.

Key words:  Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), Space laboratory, Orbit prediction