关键词: 混合模型, 凸集可靠性, 模糊割集, 综合评价, 蒙特卡罗仿真

Abstract:

In order to describe and analyze the reliability of a aerospace mechanism system with hybrid uncertainty information of probabilistic, non-probabilistic and fuzzy more accurately, firstly a unified reliability model based on the probabilistic and non-probabilistic theory is proposed. This modeling method combines the random and fuzzy uncertainty information based on the convex set non-probabilistic model. And both mix and separate of the system′s response area and the failure area are considered. Then the system′s reliability of these two situations is analyzed by unifying both probabilistic information and non-probabilistic information from the system. When the two areas mixed each other, the unified model utilizes the second order reliability method (SORM) to transform the interval non-probabilistic information into the interval uniform distribution information and then calculates the reliability by use of the Monte-Carlo simulation; Otherwise, the unified model is used to calculate the reliability index by use of the uniform convex theory, the fuzzy cut set theory and the HL-RF optimization algorithm. At last, the method is verified by using the numerical examples and the engineering examples of the satellite antenna′s biaxial driving mechanism system.

Key words: Hybrid model, Convex set reliability, Fuzzy cut set；Comprehensive evaluation, Monte-Carlo simulation