Journal of Astronautics ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1258-1265.doi: 10.3873/j.issn.1000-1328.2018.11.008

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Bayesian Trajectory Prediction for a Hypersonic Gliding Reentry Vehicle Based on Intent Inference

ZHANG Kai, XIONG Jia jun, LI Fan, FU Ting ting   

  1. 1. Department of Graduation Management, Air Force Early Warning Academy, Wuhan 430019, China; 2. No. 4 Department, Air Force Early Warning Academy, Wuhan 430019, China
  • Received:2017-12-28 Revised:2018-04-18 Online:2018-11-15 Published:2018-11-25


 In order to solve the problems of an interception caused by a maneuver of a hypersonic gliding reentry vehicle, a Bayesian trajectory prediction method based on the intent inference is studied. First, the dynamic model of the target is modeled and maneuvering mode set is designed by the aerodynamic parameters. Then it assumes that the hypersonic glide reentry vehicle will attack a certain target and a intention cost function is constructed according to the flight intention. The Bayesian theory is used to deduce the recursion formula of the maneuvering mode and motion state. Finally the trajectory prediction algorithm is realized through the Monte Carlo sampling. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively improve the accuracy of the trajectory prediction under the uncertain maneuvering in the future. When multiple targets are likely to be hit, the negative impact of misjudgment to the target on trajectory prediction can be reduced by reprogramming the predicted trajectory online.

Key words:  Hypersonic vehicle, Trajectory prediction, Intent inference, Bayesian theory, Maneuvering mode, Monte Carlo sampling

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