Abstract: In this paper, the uncertainty quantification method based on the surrogate model is developed. The surrogate model is used to construct the response relationship between the target variable and the uncertainty input parameters with samples of some deterministic numerical simulation results. The uncertainty information of the target variable, including the statistical information such as mean, standard deviation, probability density distributions, and sensitivity of each input parameter, is analyzed. Taking the ablative thermal response calculation as an example, the influence of the uncertainty of the physical property parameters on the ablative response prediction shows that the method has high accuracy and efficiency. This paper provides a good approach to solve the multidimensional uncertainty quantification in engineering.

Key words: Uncertainty quantification, Surrogate model, Model test, Sensitivity analysis