Abstract: Aiming at the characteristics of short range gliding vehicle in near space with variable maneuvering modes and dramatic changes in ballistic parameters, this paper designs a trajectory prediction method based on variable structure interactive multi model filtering. This method builds a time varying maneuvering model set based on flight missions combined with adaptive grids to solve the problem of maneuvering modes. A variable structure interactive multi model method is proposed to identify the characteristic parameters of the maneuvering model by introducing the fading factor and the modified Markov probability transfer matrix. On this basis, by updating the control parameters in the maneuvering model, the trajectory prediction under the condition of numerical integration is realized. The simulation results show that this method has high precision and strong robustness trajectory tracking capabilities for short gliding vehicle in typical maneuvering modes, as well as strong convergence in the trajectory predication process, so it has certain theoretical significance and engineering value.

Key words: Short range gliding vehicle, Flight mission profiles, Adaptive grids prafiles, Interactive multi model, Trajectory prediction